Shutdown?

Part of the modern Republican mantra appears to be: Never let a crisis go to waste and if a suitable one doesn’t exist, manufacture one.  As of this writing, (Thursday afternoon), the federal government is posed to run out of money at the end of the month due to lack of passage of a continuing resolution – a real budget agreement is a pipe dream – and the ability to borrow by virtue of the debt ceiling not being raised will follow shortly.  So what are the House Republicans poised to do?  They are going to pass a continuing resolution that would expire in mid-December, but only if it includes defunding Obamacare.  The chances of that bill becoming law are only slightly better than of Mitch McConnell resigning from the Senate to become the new starting center for an NBA franchise.  With only days to go in which to solve a serious problem the House Republicans effectively do nothing good and actually do harm by wasting time. 

This bill will pass a House of Representative who, along with the “leadership” of the Republican caucus, is being held hostage by a band of about 80 economic terrorists, a/k/a their Tea Party faction.  Their apparent goal is to shutdown the federal government as a way of stopping Obamacare from further implementation.  The reality is that the way Obamacare is funded a government shutdown will have virtually no effect on its continued implementation.  This however is not a group that is grounded in reality.  They live in a fantasy world in which all that counts is placating their base of low information, but often very vocal, voters.

The bottom line is what can be expected to ultimately happen.  Will Obamacare be defunded?  Will the government shutdown?  Will there be a continuing resolution?  Will the debt ceiling be lifted?

Obamacare will not be defunded.  The President will never sign legislation to that effect and very, very likely the votes do not exist to get that legislation to his desk.  If somehow legislation defunding Obamacare reached the President’s desk, the votes to override a veto do not come close to existing.

The government may or may not shutdown.  If it does it won’t be for long.  I expect, like most things in Washington, there will be some sort of eleventh hour deal.  It is possible that the “eleventh hour” may actually extend a day or so into October.  We have seen that type of scenario before.

There will be a continuing resolution.  Look for the Tea Party to stay stubborn and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to rally enough Democratic votes to supplement the Republicans who, in the end, will have to leave the Tea Partiers hanging.  We have seen that movie before also.  If Speaker John Boehner had any real leadership ability, that situation would occur in the next few days; it won’t.

The debt ceiling issue will be favorably resolved.  Either it will be raised or the Administration will invoke Section 4 of the 14th Amendment and simply disregard it.  Despite all the Republican rhetoric to the contrary, it does not authorize any new spending.  It simply allows the Treasury to borrow to pay the bills that Congress has already incurred.

The logically thinking among my readership are probably asking; if this is such a futile attempt on the part of the Tea Party, why are they doing it?  I am increasingly becoming convinced that many of them are so trapped in the fantasy world of selective information in which they live that they believe their own less than truths.  The politicians that have just latched on to the Tea Party for political reasons are much more concerned with rhetoric that plays well with their base than what is good for America.  What it does provide is a distraction from the real problems that confront America, like jobs and the need for comprehensive immigration reform.  The Tea Party and their Republican compatriots have no solutions for these problems and they don’t want any attention cast on them.

The ultimate answer is to get rid of the Tea Party.  You can do your part starting with the 2014 election.

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